Perspectives

Market Trends

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of February showed a 0.2% m/m increase and +2.8% y/y. This was a reversal of the trend of 0.1% increases in monthly CPI over the past 3 months.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased from last week with a jump in jobless claims from federal workers being offset by a decline in regular state claims. Layoffs by the DOGE, whether directly from the Federal government payrolls or indirectly through private sector contracts, are only recommendations so it will take a few weeks for agency heads to follow through or reject the recommendations. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 221,000 for the week ending March 1st, after the prior week’s report of 242,000. The four-week moving average increased to 224,250 from 224,000 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, surged 42,000 to 1,897,000 for the week ending February 22nd. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Stephens Spotlights

A unique challenge arises in rapidly expanding areas during a countywide reappraisal or reassessment, when a school district’s property assessments increase by more than 10% in a single year,(taking into consideration newly discovered real property and new construction and improvements to real property), as Arkansas law requires a millage rollback.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims were little changed last week, hovering around pre-Covid levels that indicate solid demand for workers. Market watchers are looking for early signs of the impact of the Trump administration’s firings across the federal workforce, however it’s unclear how many government workers are eligible for unemployment benefits. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 15th, after the prior week’s report of 214,000. The four-week moving average decreased to 215,250 from 216,250 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, climbed 24,000 to 1,869,000 for the week ending February 8th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of January showed an increase of 0.5% m/m and +3.0% y/y. This came in above economist’s expectations of 0.3% m/m and marked the third consecutive month of 0.1% increases.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased slightly last week reflecting a labor market that is trending sideways. Demand is soft, but not enough for businesses to shed payroll through layoffs. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 1st, after the prior week’s report of 208,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 216,750 from 212,750 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, climbed 36,000 to 1,886,000 for the week ending January 25th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week as the expected jump in claims due to the California fires have not materialized. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 207,000 for the week ending January 25th, after the prior week’s report of 223,000. The four-week moving average declined to 212,500 from 213,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, declined 42,000 to 1,858,000 for the week ending January 18th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released their decision on the federal funds rate at the first meeting of 2025. As anticipated, the Fed opted to keep the rate unchanged, maintaining the range between 4.25% and 4.50%.

Market Trends

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of December showed an increase of 0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Compared to November that showed a m/m increase of 0.3% and a y/y change of +2.7%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell last week, but continuing claims surged again. The end of year can be very volatile due to the end of seasonal work, retirements and several other factors. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 201,000 for the week ending January 4th, after the prior week’s report of 211,000. The four-week moving average dropped to 213,000 from 223,250 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, surged 33,000 to 1,867,000 for the week ending December 28th. The elevated continuing jobless claims are putting upward pressure on the median duration of unemployment, which rose to 10.5 weeks in November, up from 9.0 a year earlier. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.