Perspectives

Market Trends

At this week’s meeting the Fed left the funds rate alone and three of the 12 voters dissented. Chairman Warsh then spent most of an hour explaining why doing nothing was not the same as doing nothing.

Market Trends

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its July policy decision today, holding the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% target range, an outcome that was widely anticipated.

Market Trends

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in prices across a broad basket of goods and services, was released today. The report showed prices decreased 0.4% from May to June and increased 3.5% year over year.

Market Trends

Summer is supposed to be the quiet season, but this year the heat came early. A war scare in the spring and the oil spike that rode with it made for an anxious first half, not the calm anyone sketched out in January.

Market Trends

The June jobs report came in weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls adding 57,000 versus the consensus estimate of 100,000. Professional and business services, social assistance, and health care led the gains.

Market Trends

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with 1 to 3 storms reaching major hurricane status. While the overall outlook suggests reduced activity, it is important to emphasize that a single significant storm can cause substantial disruption.

Market Trends

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its June policy decision today, holding the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% target range, an outcome that was widely anticipated.

Market Trends

The market spent the past couple of weeks doing what it sometimes does not do very well, which is hurry up and wait. The Iran conflict sits in a back-and-forth mode, and the read from here is that this administration still wants a deal.

Market Trends

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in prices across a broad basket of goods and services, was released today. The report showed prices rose 0.5% from April to May and increased 4.2% year over year, in line with expectations.

Market Trends

The May jobs report came in much stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls increasing 172,000 versus the consensus estimate of 85,000. Leisure and hospitality, local government, and healthcare led the gains.