Weekly Economic Review | January 3, 2023 | Stephens

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Market Trends

Weekly Economic Review | January 3, 2023

Jan 3, 2023

Economic Review

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose last week, but remain near historically low levels. The Fed has aggressively raised interest rates in an effort to tame wage inflation, but the labor market has remained largely resilient throughout the year. Claims in regular state programs climbed by 9,000 to 225,000 for the week ending December 24th, after reporting 216,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 221,000 from 221,250 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 41,000 to 1.710 million for the week ending December 17th.

The Commerce Department reported the goods trade deficit narrowed in November as imports and exports both fell. The deficit decreased 15.5% to $83.3 billion in November. Exports fell 3.1% to $168.9 billion and imports declined 7.6% to $252.2 billion.

The Commerce Department reported wholesale inventories rose 1.0% in November after gaining 0.6% the previous month. Year-on-year wholesale inventories have climbed 21.0%. Retail inventories increased 0.1% in November after falling 0.4% in October and are up 18.4% year-on-year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported the house price index of purchase-only homes remained unchanged in October after climbing 0.1% in September. The year-on-year change in the house price index was 9.8% in October. The HPI is estimated using repeated observations of housing values for single-family homes on which at least two mortgages were originated and subsequently sold to Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. The use of repeat transactions on the same unit helps to control for differences in the quality of the houses.

The S&P CoreLogic CaseShiller home price index decreased 0.52% in October after falling 1.35% in September, the fourth straight decline in home prices. The report indicates demand for housing continues to slow in September as higher mortgage rates and affordability pressure new homebuyers. The index climbed 9.24% in October from the same month in 2022. The index tracks changes in the value of homes in 20 metropolitan regions.

The National Association of Realtors reported the index of pending home re-sales declined in November for the tenth time this year. The number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes fell 4.0% in November after declining 4.7% in October. Pending home sales are down 38.6% on a seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis in November. Pending sales are a leading indicator in the housing sector as they reflect contracts signed, as opposed to actual closed and final sales.


Friday’s yields for the 2-, 5-, 10- & 30-year Treasury benchmarks securities were 4.43%, 4.00%, 3.87% and 3.96%. The 2yr/5yr, 5yr/10yr, 10yr/30yr and 2yr/30yr spreads closed at -43, -13, 9, and -47 basis points respectively.

Economic/Events Calendar


January 3

Nov Construction Spending (-0.4%)

9:00 Central


January 4

Dec 30th MBA Mortgage Applications

6:00 Central

Dec ISM Manufacturing (48.5)

9:00 Central

Nov JOLTS Job Openings (10,025k)

9:00 Central

Dec 14th FOMC Meeting Minutes

13:00 Central


January 5

Dec 31st Initial Jobless Claims (225k)

7:30 Central

Dec ADP Employment Change (150k)

7:15 Central

Nov Trade Balance (-$63.7b)

7:30 Central


January 6

Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (200k)

7:30 Central

Dec Unemployment Rate (3.7%)

7:30 Central

Dec Average Hourly Earnings-YOY (5.0%)

7:30 Central

Dec Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%)

7:30 Central

Dec ISM Services Index (55.0)

9:00 Central

Nov Factory Orders (-2.1%)

9:00 Central

Nov Factory Orders Ex Transportation

9:00 Central

About the Expert

Troy Clark

Senior Vice President, Fixed Income Strategist, Fixed Income Sales & Trading

Mr. Clark has been in investment banking since 1983. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst. He has been a fixed income strategist at Stephens Inc. since 1996, developing investment strategies, policies and procedures for institutions consistent with overall asset/liability management.

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Source: Bloomberg L.P.
  1. This report has been prepared solely for informative purposes as of its stated date and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell any security. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the individual expressing the opinion and are subject to change. This report does not purport to be a complete description of the markets or developments referred to in the material. Information included in the report was obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Prices, yields, and availability are subject to change with the market. There is no assurance any forward looking statements will be realized or any of the trends mentioned will continue. Nothing in this report is intended, or should be construed, as legal, accounting, regulatory or tax advice. Additional information available upon request. 2022 Stephens Inc., Member NYSE/SIPC.