Fixed Income Sales & Trading Perspectives

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims edged higher last week, a week that included Presidents’ Day. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 212,000 for the week ending February 21st, after the prior week’s report of 208,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 220,250 from 219,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still cannot find a job, fell 31,000 to 1,833,000 for the week ending February 14th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

The Economy & Strategies

For many Arkansas communities, access to the bond market is essential to sustaining growth. Whether financing a new school, upgrading sporting facilities, or modernizing tech infrastructure, districts rely on long-term borrowing to meet educational and community needs.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since June 21st, adding to evidence the labor market is cooling. Initial claims have been moving higher for roughly six weeks. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 237,000 for the week ending August 30th, after the prior week’s report of 229,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 231,000 from 228,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still cannot find a job, decreased 4,000 to 1,940,000 for the week ending August 23rd. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.3%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined for a sixth straight week last week, underscoring the resilience of the labor market. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 217,000 for the week ending July 19th, after the prior week’s report of 221,000. The four-week moving average dropped to 224,500 from 229,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still cannot find a job, edged higher by 4,000 to 1,955,000 for the week ending July 12th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.3%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week to the highest weekly count since the week ended October 5, 2024. The data reflect a gradual cooling in the labor market. The accumulation of higher continuing claims suggests that people who lose a job are having an incrementally more difficult time finding a new one and initial claims are slowly creeping higher. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 247,000 for the week ending May 31st, after the prior week’s report of 239,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 235,000 from 230,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still cannot find a job, decreased 3,000 to 1,904,000 for the week ending May 24th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, decreased to 1.2% from 1.3% the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, with gains in both initial and continuing jobless claims. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 240,000 for the week ending May 24th, after the prior week’s report of 226,000. The four-week moving average declined to 230,750 from 231,000 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still cannot find a job, increased 26,000 to 1,919,000 for the week ending May 17th. This is the highest level since November 2021, though the level is only about 50,000 higher than the average of the last 6 months. The gain suggests that workers who have been laid off are having a harder time finding a new job. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, increased to 1.3% from 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased slightly last week. This claims report confirms there is no current evidence of substantial layoffs in the labor market via a cut off in federal spending from the DOGE. It’s important to note, DOGE does not have authority to make decisions on spending cuts or headcount reduction, rather they make recommendations. It will take a few weeks for agency heads to follow through, or reject the recommendations. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 220,000 for the week ending March 8th, after the prior week’s report of 222,000. The four-week moving average increased to 226,000 from 224,500 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased from last week with a jump in jobless claims from federal workers being offset by a decline in regular state claims. Layoffs by the DOGE, whether directly from the Federal government payrolls or indirectly through private sector contracts, are only recommendations so it will take a few weeks for agency heads to follow through or reject the recommendations. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 221,000 for the week ending March 1st, after the prior week’s report of 242,000. The four-week moving average increased to 224,250 from 224,000 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims were little changed last week, hovering around pre-Covid levels that indicate solid demand for workers. Market watchers are looking for early signs of the impact of the Trump administration’s firings across the federal workforce, however it’s unclear how many government workers are eligible for unemployment benefits. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 15th, after the prior week’s report of 214,000. The four-week moving average decreased to 215,250 from 216,250 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased slightly last week reflecting a labor market that is trending sideways. Demand is soft, but not enough for businesses to shed payroll through layoffs. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 1st, after the prior week’s report of 208,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 216,750 from 212,750 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, climbed 36,000 to 1,886,000 for the week ending January 25th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.