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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | March 27, 2023
Mar 27, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined again last week, underscoring a very tight labor market. The Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates over the past year with the intent of reducing labor demand, but labor continues to be resilient. Claims in regular state programs fell 1,000 to 191,000 for the week ending March 18th, after reporting 192,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average edged lower to 196,250 from 196,500 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 14,000 to 1.694 million for the week ending March 11th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | March 20, 2023
Mar 20, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased last week, with the decline coming mostly from a reversal in New York. The report indicates labor supply is not increasing in any meaningful way. Claims in regular state programs fell 20,000 to 192,000 for the week ending March 11th, after reporting 212,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average edged lower to 196,500 from 197,250 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, decreased by 29,000 to 1.684 million for the week ending March 4th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | March 13, 2023
Mar 13, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased last week, signaling a possible beginning to the expected slowdown in labor growth as companies prepare for an economic slowdown. Claims in regular state programs increased 21,000 to 211,000 for the week ending March 4th, after reporting 190,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average climbed to 197,000 from 193,000 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 69,000 to 1.718 million for the week ending February 25th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | March 6, 2023
Mar 6, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined again last week, posting its seventh straight week with fewer than 200,000 claims. The low number of jobless claims highlight a tight job market that is contributing to inflationary pressures. Layoffs across the economy remain at historically low levels. Claims data is being closely watched by market watchers for any sign the labor market is starting to crack under the weight of higher interest rates, high labor costs and rapid inflation. Claims in regular state programs decreased 2,000 to 190,000 for the week ending February 25th, after reporting 192,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average climbed to 193,000 from 191,250 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, decreased by 5,000 to 1.655 million for the week ending February 18th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | February 27, 2023
Feb 27, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined again last week, posting its sixth straight week with fewer than 200,000 claims. Employers continue to hoard workers. Labor supply is not increasing in any meaningful way and there is no evidence this will change any time soon. Claims in regular state programs decreased 2,000 to 192,000 for the week ending February 18th, after reporting an upwardly revised 195,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average climbed to 191,250 from 189,750 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, decreased by 37,000 to 1.654 million for the week ending February 11th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | February 21, 2023
Feb 21, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined slightly last week, posting its fifth straight week with fewer than 200,000 claims. The labor market continues to be very tight even as the Fed raises rates to slow the economy. Claims in regular state programs decreased 1,000 to 194,000 for the week ending February 11th, after reporting a downwardly revised 195,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average climbed to 189,500 from 189,000 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 16,000 to 1.696 million for the week ending February 4th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | February 13, 2023
Feb 13, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose for the first time in six weeks last week. It was the fourth straight week claims held below 200,000, a level that is historically very low. Despite a rising number of layoffs spreading beyond tech companies, such as Disney and Boeing, many businesses are still struggling to hire. Demand for workers still far exceeds supply. Claims in regular state programs increased 13,000 to 196,000 for the week ending February 4th, after reporting 183,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 189,250 from 191,750 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 38,000 to 1.688 million for the week ending January 28th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | February 6, 2023
Feb 6, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined again last week to its lowest level since April. The labor market continues to show strength, which is concerning as it is a key hurdle in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Demand for workers still far exceeds supply. Claims in regular state programs declined 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ending January 28th, after reporting 186,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 191,750 from 197,500 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, decreased by 11,000 to 1.655 million for the week ending January 21st.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | January 30, 2023
Jan 30, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined again last week to its lowest level since April, signaling the labor market remains tight even as the Fed raises rates in order to reduce the demand for labor. The low number of claims suggest we are still a ways off from seeing an acceleration in labor market deterioration. Claims in regular state programs declined 6,000 to 186,000 for the week ending January 21st, after reporting 192,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 197,500 from 206,750 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, increased by 20,000 to 1.675 million for the week ending January 14th.
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Market Trends
Weekly Economic Review | January 17, 2023
Jan 17, 2023
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined again last week, showing the incredible resilience in the labor market. The labor market has yet to cool in a convincing way, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Claims in regular state programs declined 1,000 to 205,000 for the week ending January 7th, after reporting 206,000 initial claims the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 212,500 from 214,250 the prior week. The total number of people continuing to receive regular ongoing state benefits, a report which is lagged one week, decreased by 63,000 to 1.634 million for the week ending December 31st.
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