Fixed Income Sales & Trading Perspectives

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased slightly last week. This claims report confirms there is no current evidence of substantial layoffs in the labor market via a cut off in federal spending from the DOGE. It’s important to note, DOGE does not have authority to make decisions on spending cuts or headcount reduction, rather they make recommendations. It will take a few weeks for agency heads to follow through, or reject the recommendations. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 220,000 for the week ending March 8th, after the prior week’s report of 222,000. The four-week moving average increased to 226,000 from 224,500 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims decreased from last week with a jump in jobless claims from federal workers being offset by a decline in regular state claims. Layoffs by the DOGE, whether directly from the Federal government payrolls or indirectly through private sector contracts, are only recommendations so it will take a few weeks for agency heads to follow through or reject the recommendations. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 221,000 for the week ending March 1st, after the prior week’s report of 242,000. The four-week moving average increased to 224,250 from 224,000 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims were little changed last week, hovering around pre-Covid levels that indicate solid demand for workers. Market watchers are looking for early signs of the impact of the Trump administration’s firings across the federal workforce, however it’s unclear how many government workers are eligible for unemployment benefits. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 15th, after the prior week’s report of 214,000. The four-week moving average decreased to 215,250 from 216,250 the prior week.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased slightly last week reflecting a labor market that is trending sideways. Demand is soft, but not enough for businesses to shed payroll through layoffs. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 219,000 for the week ending February 1st, after the prior week’s report of 208,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 216,750 from 212,750 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, climbed 36,000 to 1,886,000 for the week ending January 25th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week as the expected jump in claims due to the California fires have not materialized. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 207,000 for the week ending January 25th, after the prior week’s report of 223,000. The four-week moving average declined to 212,500 from 213,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, a proxy for people who are already receiving benefits and still can’t find a job, declined 42,000 to 1,858,000 for the week ending January 18th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell last week, but continuing claims surged again. The end of year can be very volatile due to the end of seasonal work, retirements and several other factors. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 201,000 for the week ending January 4th, after the prior week’s report of 211,000. The four-week moving average dropped to 213,000 from 223,250 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, surged 33,000 to 1,867,000 for the week ending December 28th. The elevated continuing jobless claims are putting upward pressure on the median duration of unemployment, which rose to 10.5 weeks in November, up from 9.0 a year earlier. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose last week to a two month high, with a large increase in claims from California, which was hit by wildfires in early December. Jobless claims could surge toward the end of the year after Boeing Co. presented measures to cut costs that includes a 10% reduction in the workforce. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 242,000 for the week ending December 7th, after the prior week’s report of 225,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 224,250 from 218,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, increased 15,000 to 1,886,000 for the week ending November 30th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, dropped back to 1.2% after climbing to 1.3% two weeks earlier.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose last week in a volatile session due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Jobless claims are set to jump toward the end of the year after Boeing Co. presented a range of measures to cut costs, including a 10% reduction in the workplace. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 224,000 for the week ending November 30th, after the prior week’s report of 215,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 218,250 from 217,500 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, decreased 25,000 to 1,871,000 for the week ending November 23rd. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained unchanged from the previous week at 1.3%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week to their lowest since May as southeastern states continued to recover from the impact of two hurricanes. The low number of layoffs signals that layoffs remain low even with an ongoing strike at Boeing & Company. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 216,000 for the week ending October 26th after the prior week’s report of 228,000. The four-week moving average dropped to 236,500 from 238,750 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, decreased 26,000 to 1,862,000 for the week ending October 19th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained unchanged at 1.2%.

Market Trends

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims spiked to a one-year high last week, reflecting increases in Michigan and states hit by Hurricane Helene. The jobless claims data are likely in for a stretch of volatility in the wake of hurricanes Helene and Milton, complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to accurately gauge underlying developments in the labor market. First time claims in regular state programs recorded 258,000 for the week ending October 5^th after the prior week’s report of 225,000. The four-week moving average climbed to 231,000 from 224,250 the prior week. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more, increased 42,000 to 1,861,000 for the week ending September 28^th. The insured unemployment rate, the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force, remained at 1.2%.