Monthly Employment Update
The June jobs report came in weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls adding 57,000 versus the consensus estimate of 100,000. Professional and business services, social assistance, and health care led the gains. Revisions emphasized a strong but cooling labor market, with April and May numbers both revised downwards to 148,000 and 129,000 respectively, making a total downward revision of 74,000. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.2% while the broader underemployment fell to 7.9%.
On the wage side, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year, slightly above last month’s 3.4%, but still in line with consensus estimates. Although the numbers for the June report and
the downward revisions were surprising, the FOMC commentary emphasized their focus on the inflationary side of their dual mandate, with economists still forecasting a greater likelihood of a rate hike by the October meeting.
Last Five Months Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: BLS.gov
Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: FRED - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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