Monthly Employment Update
The April jobs report came in stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 versus the consensus estimate of 65,000. Health care, transportation, warehousing, and retail trade led the gains, while federal government employment continued its decline. Revisions to the previous two months were relatively benign with a 16,000 net decrease in job growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, keeping in line with estimates, though the broader underemployment measure edged up to 8.2%.
On the wage side, average hourly earnings rose 3.6% year over year, slightly above last month’s 3.5% but below the 3.8% estimate. That trajectory is constructive for keeping wage inflation contained. Taken together, the strength of April and March reports, along with the small revisions, will likely be almost neutral for the FOMC’s next decision in June. The May Employment Situation, to be released on June 5, will likely carry more weight for the committee.
Last Five Months Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: BLS.gov
Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: FRED - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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