Monthly Employment Update
The March jobs report came in stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 versus the consensus estimate of 65,000. Health care, construction, and transportation led the gains, while federal government employment continued to shrink. The headline number looks solid, but February was revised lower to a loss of 133,000, down from the originally reported 92,000, and the total two-month revision was negative 7,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%, beating expectations, though the broader underemployment measure edged up to 8.0%
On the wage side, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year, below last month’s 3.8% and below the 3.7% estimate. That trajectory is constructive for keeping wage inflation contained. Taken together, the March strength and the revised February weakness likely wash each other out. We view this report as fairly neutral for the FOMC and unlikely to move the needle on rate decisions in either direction.
Last Five Months Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: BLS.gov
Nonfarm Payrolls
Source: FRED - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Disclaimer
- The information in the Employment update has been prepared solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy, sell or hold any security or a recommendation of the services supplied by any money management organization. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. We believe the sources to be reliable, however, the accuracy and completeness of the information is not guaranteed. Data displayed on this site or printed in such reports may be provided by third party providers. This document is intended only for the addressee and may not be reproduced or redistributed. If the reader is not the intended recipient, you are notified that any disclosure, distribution or copying is prohibited. Additional information is available upon request. Please contact your Financial Consultant with any questions.